The next month is going to be important for the Cowboys.
The loss to the Cincinnati Bengals all but ended any possibility of the Dallas Cowboys making the postseason. Any remaining scenarios for them entail things so improbable it would be one of the greatest miracles in NFL history to be in the playoffs this season, and there isn’t going to be a Christmas miracle like that for Dallas.
Now they face the challenge of what to do to try and turn things around in 2025. It is widely anticipated that Jerry Jones will be looking for a new head coach. However, the name so frequently linked to the job, Bill Belichick, is now set to join the college ranks at the University of North Carolina. And Jones himself has left the door open, more or less, for Mike McCarthy to return. That may be a bit disturbing for many or even most fans. But as Tom Ryle and David Howman discuss, there are some reasons why it may come about. And they center around quarterback Dak Prescott.
Tom: It is a given that the Cowboys are tied to Dak Prescott with his massive contract. That is a Jerry decision, and he is not about to admit that the team may be stuck in limbo with Prescott.
But that may be exactly where they are. After two major injuries to his legs, Prescott is no longer the mobile quarterback who can evade sacks, extend plays, or tuck and run for a big gain. His confidence in running is gone. He has never been the best pocket passer, but that is what he may be reduced to.
This is the scenario facing any new head coach. The size of Prescott’s cap hit, and that of CeeDee Lamb, means they would see the team relying again on the draft to rebuild a badly depleted roster. It is not something that is going to turn around quickly.
That means the best the team may be able to do is keep McCarthy, or take a real gamble on a hungry assistant coach. And that is a bet Jerry is not likely to make.
David: We’ll have to just disagree on the assessment of Prescott. He’s never been much of a running threat in the NFL – his career high was 357 rushing yards in 2017 – but his pocket passing is what makes him great. Since 2019, the year where he really fixed his footwork and started to ascend the leaderboard, Prescott is sixth among all quarterbacks in EPA/play and ninth in completion percentage over expected (CPOE).
We also saw the best version of Prescott just a year ago, which just so happened to be the first year with McCarthy calling plays. Things looked off this year, but there were a lot of external factors. Lamb’s holdout, Prescott’s own contract situation, major changes on the offensive line, and the general pressure to perform for McCarthy as a lame duck coach.
But we know Prescott can thrive in this offense, which is one reason to keep McCarthy. Another is that you don’t want to put your quarterback – the longest tenured quarterback in the league, mind you – through a total scheme change at the same time that he’s recovering from a pretty gruesome injury. The rehab process will be grueling enough. The Cowboys shouldn’t rock the boat any more than they have to if they want to support their franchise quarterback.
Tom: I will demur on how important his mobility is. We’ve seen him escape almost certain sacks and make plays in past seasons, but that was not nearly as evident this year. Further, it isn’t the volume of rushing yards, it is the effectiveness. Prescott used to turn almost certain losses into positive plays. Again, that did not seem to be working for him nearly as well in 2024.
Now we have to see how his rehab goes, and just what he still has. I fear there will be a bit more degrading in his physical ability. And, as you said, as the longest tenured QB in the league, the miles are adding up. Sure, some other quarterbacks that have moved around are still playing at a high level, but there is also Aaron Rodgers, for example, who just doesn’t seem to have the magic he once did. I will concede, however, that he would have needed a lot of sorcery to lead that Jets roster to success.
But we do have some common ground. The team is sticking with Prescott, because they have no choice, and McCarthy may be the best option to maximize his potential. He has five seasons working with his QB. Changes with a new head man and offensive coordinator, the latter a de facto role for McCarthy, would set things back. Possibly a lot.
And this team was still fighting hard for McCarthy last Monday. Had it not been for the bone-headed special teams error by Amani Oruwariye, they would very likely have won that game. For all his faults, McCarthy still seems to have the faith of his players.
2025 is looking like something of a rebuild for the Cowboys. Given that, I’m not sure that giving McCarthy two or three more years would be a bad thing. After all, Belichick seems to have taken the UNC job so he could hand it to his son, and that may not take too long. In any case, there will be other candidates in other years if they are needed.
David: I’m happy to see people coming around on this, as it’s what I’ve been saying all along. Not to toot my own horn, of course, I would never do that.
McCarthy is liked and respected by his players. That much is clear. Prescott, in particular, likes him an awful lot. Quarterbacks aren’t always the best judge of coaching hires – Baker Mayfield once endorsed Freddie Kitchens – but Prescott has been around long enough that if he’s vouching for his head coach/play-caller to stick around, we should listen.
McCarthy has also proven capable of reaching the postseason more often than not. For all the talk about playoff success, he’s won a playoff game more recently than either Belichick or Mike Vrabel, another popular candidate. And the reality is that winning a Super Bowl takes a bit of luck. How many games have the Chiefs won this year by sheer dumb luck? Even a team on the verge of becoming the first team in NFL history to three-peat needs some luck.
The Cowboys haven’t been lucky in the playoffs yet, but you have to get there first. McCarthy does that. So, too, does Bills head coach Sean McDermott, who’s already clinched his sixth straight playoff appearance. He’s already matched the amount of playoff appearances the franchise had in the entire span from 1992 to 2016.
McDermott has yet to win a Super Bowl or even reach the game, and he’s only been to the conference championship game once. But the Bills haven’t even thought about firing him, because they know how hard it is to reach the playoffs in the first place. All it takes is one lucky year for everything to go your way come playoff time, but luck doesn’t matter if you’re not in the big dance.
So here’s to luck. May you favor the Cowboys once again in our lifetimes.
