Stopping Joe Burrow is seemingly impossible
The Dallas Cowboys are on a winning streak right now, and their defense is a big part of it. Since Micah Parsons returned to action, they’re 10th in EPA/play allowed after ranking 30th prior to his return. But they’ll face their toughest challenge of the year on Monday night when they host the Cincinnati Bengals.
When the Bengals decided to move on from longtime head coach Marvin Lewis, they sought a fresh and innovative approach, particularly on offense. That led them to be one of the very first teams to try and pick from the Sean McVay coaching tree.
Cincinnati hired Zac Taylor, who had been the Rams’ quarterbacks coach during a Super Bowl run in 2018 after assisting with wide receivers in McVay’s first year leading the team. Prior to that, Taylor had worked with quarterbacks for the Dolphins under Joe Philbin, and he was promoted to interim offensive coordinator not long after Dan Campbell became the interim head coach in 2015.
That was pretty much all people knew about Taylor when he was tabbed to lead the Bengals. Fans wouldn’t learn a whole lot more about him until later, as the Bengals went 2-14 in Taylor’s first year on the job. But the terrible season landed them the top draft pick, which they used on Joe Burrow. The Heisman-winning quarterback showed promise as a rookie, but a torn ACL ended his season early and sentenced the Bengals to a 4-11-1 finish.
Burrow returned in 2021, and Cincinnati added his college receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the draft, and suddenly things started clicking for Taylor. They finished 10-7 and won the AFC North for the first time in seven years before going on a run to the Super Bowl. They ultimately lost to Taylor’s mentor, McVay and his Rams, but the strong season cemented the notion that Taylor and Burrow were a winning combination.
Taylor, who calls the plays on offense, has built much of his offensive identity around the Shanahan style offense that McVay popularized in Los Angeles. Of all the coaches across the league who hail from McVay’s tree, Taylor is probably the one who hews most closely to his former boss, even as McVay has tinkered with his own scheme.
Early on, that meant a ton of outside zone and play-action for the Bengals with Taylor calling the shots. But when Burrow came onto the scene, things started to shift. Play-action dropped drastically in Burrow’s second year, and they’re now near the bottom of the league in play-action rate. Taylor has also evolved the run game to feature more gap schemes as a result of the changes in offensive line personnel.
Taylor’s willingness to – ahem – tailor his scheme to Burrow has proven largely successful. The chemistry between Burrow and Chase is special, too. In the four seasons they’ve been playing together in Cincinnati, Burrow has a 116.3 passer rating when throwing to Chase. His career passer rating is 99.7, to give you an idea of how good the two are.
The Bengals are one of the most pass happy offenses in the league, throwing the ball 64.3% of the time. They’re also one of the most explosive units, currently ranking inside the top 10 in scoring, yards, and EPA/play. Burrow has also thrown the second-most 20+ yard touchdowns this year.
As good as the Bengals have been through the air, their ground game hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. Cincinnati is 27th in rushing yards per game and 22nd in EPA/rush, and only seven teams have fewer runs of 10+ yards. The decision to trade Joe Mixon in the offseason has not panned out, as Chase Brown ranks in the middle of the league in rushing success rate and the team as a whole is 26th in yards before contact.
That makes for an ideal matchup for Dallas, or at least on paper it does. The Cowboys run defense has remained dismal even as they’ve played better in recent weeks, but their pass defense is hitting its stride. Since Parsons came back, Dallas is third in the league in EPA/pass. They’re also sixth in pressure rate, rarely giving the quarterback time to throw.
For what it’s worth, Burrow has been one of the very best throwing under pressure this year, and very few defenses have been able to contain his connection with Chase or even Tee Higgins. The Cowboys likely aren’t going to be able to shut this passing game down, but they should be able to win enough drives to keep things close, especially if they don’t have to worry as much about the run game.
