Do you think the Cowboys will win on Monday night?
It’s a weird time in Dallas right now. The Cowboys snapped their five-game losing streak in dramatic fashion over the Commanders and then handled the Giants on Thanksgiving to notch their first home win in nearly a full year. Suddenly, they’re 5-7 with a sterling 3-1 record in the division as they enter December, where embattled head coach Mike McCarthy has traditionally thrived.
Next up is a home game against the Bengals, who feel a lot like the Cowboys this year.
Both teams entered with high expectations, largely due to the strong chemistry between their franchise quarterback and star receiver. Both are led by head coaches that call offensive plays whose standing with the fan base is often very divided. Both teams are the only ones in the league whose owner is also the general manager. And both teams are staring down the likelihood of missing out on the postseason this year.
For the Bengals, it’s been a frustrating year from the very start. They shocked the NFL world by losing at home in Week 1 to the Patriots. Next up was a road trip to the Chiefs, which they lost by just one point. Then they were upset by the Commanders when Jayden Daniels made his prime time debut in impressive fashion.
Just like that, the Bengals were 0-3. They won three of their next four, with the loss coming in overtime against the Ravens, and it looked like things might be turning around. Since then, though, the bottom has dropped out in Cincinnati. They’ve lost four of their last five, with the only win coming against the Raiders.
The most frustrating part is how they’re losing. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have been on fire, as the Bengals have scored 34+ points in each of the last four games. They rank sixth in points per game, 10th in yards, and eighth in EPA/play. But the defense, which was a key part of their Super Bowl run just a few years ago, has completely fallen apart.
Only four defenses – one of which is the Cowboys, naturally – are allowing more points per game than the Bengals. They’re also giving up the eighth-most yards and rank 29th in EPA/play allowed. It’s been getting worse, too: over the course of their current three game losing streak, Cincinnati’s defense is 31st in EPA/play allowed. Over that same span, the Cowboys are 10th in EPA/play allowed.
That sets the stage for what should be a fascinating Simpsons-themed matchup on Monday Night Football. Few offenses have been hotter the past month than the Bengals, and few defenses have been hotter than the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense can’t seem to stop a nose bleed and Dallas is basically just throwing all their trick plays at the wall to see what sticks.
Ironically, the last time these two teams squared off, the stage was not all that different. In 2022, the Cowboys had just lost their season opener and lost Dak Prescott to an injury. Cooper Rush made only his second career start at home against the Bengals, who had fallen to the Steelers in their season opener.
Rush proceeded to complete 61.3% of his passes for 235 yards and a touchdown, while the Dallas defense sacked Burrow six times and held him to just 199 passing yards. Chase was similarly kept in check, with just 54 yards on five receptions, and the Cowboys took a commanding 17-3 lead into halftime. The Bengals managed to score 14 straight points, tying things up with just under four minutes left in the game, but Rush moved the offense into position for a game-winning Brett Maher field goal as time expired.
Now they meet again, but towards the end of disappointing seasons. The playoffs are not technically out of reach for either team – Dallas has a 4% chance while Cincinnati has a 2% chance – but both are likely aware of the reality that this year is lost. That became official on Thursday for one Cowboys player, as Zack Martin was announced to be undergoing season ending surgery. Martin, who openly discussed the idea of retirement earlier this offseason, may very well have played his last football for the Cowboys.
There isn’t much time to reminisce, though, as the Cowboys are trying to hit their first three-game win streak since this time last year. McCarthy is only helping his case to be brought back as head coach with each win, and Prescott’s vote of confidence certainly helps, but a prime time win over the high powered Bengals offense would go a long way towards accomplishing that.
