What will you be watching when the Cowboys play the Texans?
It doesn’t seem like that long ago when Derek Carr’s older brother David threw two touchdowns to help the expansion Houston Texans win the first football they ever played in the opener of the 2002 season. It was an embarrassing day for the Dallas Cowboys who ended up finishing the season 5-11 for the third-straight year.
The Cowboys have once again fallen on hard times. This time when they face their interstate foe, it will be the Cowboys who will be the underdog as the Texans are reigning AFC South champs and looking to take down the division again. Dallas has been an absolute disaster at home this year and there aren’t many reasons to expect things to change. Here are five things to watch when the Cowboys host the Texans on Monday night.
1. A HEAVY DOSE JOE MIXON
It’s a regular talking point in our weekly Things-to-Watch piece to express our fear of just how badly the Cowboys run defense will be worked over in this game. The anxiety is justified as their defense is one of two teams (the other being Carolina) that are averaging over 150 rushing yards allowed this season. The Cowboys have already faced four of the top six running backs in rushing yards this season, and will now have to go against another good runner in Joe Mixon this week.
Only three running backs are averaging over 90 yards a game this year. Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley are two of them with Mixon being the third. It’s the highest per-game production Mixon has had in his eight-year career. His high output is a result of high volume. The Texans new running back is averaging 21.6 carries per game, the most in the NFL. This means we should expect a heavy dose of Mixon in this game as Houston is committed to running the ball.
2. NICO AND FRIENDS
The Texans started the year with an arsenal of wide receivers that featured Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. Collins has missed extensive time and Diggs is out for the year with a torn ACL. Collins is expected to make his return from injured reserve as he’s missed the last five games with a hamstring injury.
Getting Collins back will be a huge boost for the Texan’s offense. Collins and Dell make a nice one-two punch, but the Cowboys shouldn’t forget about former second-round pick John Metchie III who is coming off his best game as a pro. He missed his rookie season battling leukemia, but he has gradually ramped up and is starting to flash some of that Alabama talent that caused him to be one of the better receivers coming out of his draft class. A healthy Collins is trouble enough, but the talent across the board of this Texans WR group could give the Cowboys secondary trouble.
3. SHORT STUFF WILL GET YOU NOTHING
The Cowboys’ offensive scheme offers very little to get excited about. With Cooper Rush back under center, the offense should be very predictable. They’ll try to run the ball, fail, and then proceed to throw a plethora of lazy passes short of the sticks. It’s sorta their thing this year.
Don’t expect the Texans’ defense to concede the small stuff and allow the Cowboys to die a slow death. They love to attack at the line of scrimmage. This defense has talent across the board and expect them to have safeties lurking when the Cowboys attempt to hit their receivers out in the flat. If Dallas doesn’t at least attempt to take shots upfield, the Texans will make quick work of the Cowboys’ possessions.
4. THE MINGO DEBUT
The Cowboys have a former second-round receiver of their own as they should finally unveil Jonathan Mingo wearing the star. Expectations will be heightened as many aren’t pleased with what the front office gave up to get him, but in fairness to the 23-year-old receiver, he needs to flash some of the skills that piqued the team’s interest.
On Thursday, we mentioned how the Cowboys could use their new wide receiver and how the second half of the season will serve as a barometer for how much help their passing game truly needs. If they can find a way to get him somewhat involved in the offense, this will be a promising first step for the team’s new receiving.
5. RELYING ON RICO
It only took half a season, but the Cowboys appear to have finally decided to make Rico Dowdle the lead running back. He’s only had one game in his career where he had more than a dozen carries in a game and that was back in Week 5 against Pittsburgh. Expect him to eclipse 12 carries once again as the team tries to get him involved early.
Of course, saying and doing are quite different. The Cowboys have struggled to run the ball this year. The team has the fourth-worst rushing efficiency and the second-worst yards after contact this season. And all of this comes with the lowest rate of light boxes in the NFL this season. Look for the Cowboys to give Rico plenty of opportunities in this one, but success on the ground should once again be hard to come by.
