An ascendant quarterback in an unbeatable scheme
When the Texans plucked DeMeco Ryans away from his post as the 49ers defensive coordinator to be their fourth head coach in as many years, there was more intentionality behind the decision than had been in previous years. While Houston’s decisions to hire David Culley and, one year later, Lovie Smith were shocks and head scratchers, Ryans was a hot coaching name that made sense. Not only had he had nothing but success in San Francisco, but he intended to recreate that model in Houston.
That was behind his decision to tap Bobby Slowik to be his offensive coordinator. Slowik, just 36 years old at the time, was one of the youngest coordinators in the NFL but also came incredibly experienced. His father is Bob Slowik, who currently coaches in the Canadian Football League but has been a coach in either college or the NFL since 1984. The longtime defensive coach is very well traveled, with much of his experience coming on Mike Shanahan’s Broncos teams in the early 2000’s.
When Shanahan came out of retirement to coach the Commanders, he brought Slowik in to coach defensive backs. That’s when the younger Slowik, who had recently wrapped up a college career as a receiver for Michigan Tech, joined the team as a defensive assistant. In Slowik’s first season as a coach, he was part of a staff that included Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel, and Raheem Morris.
When Mike Shanahan was fired in Washington, the younger Slowik landed a job at Pro Football Focus as a senior analyst. But when Kyle Shanahan was hired as the head coach of the 49ers, he lured Slowik back to the coaching ranks as a defensive quality control coach. Two years later, Slowik moved to the offensive side of the ball as an offensive assistant. Two years after that, Slowik was named the pass game specialist and, a year later, pass game coordinator.
The rapid ascension reflected the growing trust Shanahan had in Slowik to put everything together on that side of the ball, and it’s why Ryans was so quick in naming him offensive coordinator in Houston. The objective was simple: implement the offensive scheme that’s been so successful in San Francisco and, by extension, been copied by nearly the rest of the league.
On a fundamental level, this offense is built off the outside zone run. When the ball is snapped, all five offensive linemen begin running to one side and the running back goes behind them, looking for a crease to open. Then, the play-action game is built off of that, perfectly marrying the pass and run games. Once that is put together, the offense allows for a wide variety of customizations to keep defenses on their toes.
Many of those customizations were put into place in San Francisco when Slowik took a larger role in the offense, and it’s not a surprise to see that many of those followed him to Houston. On paper, the Texans offense functions very differently from the typical Shanahan scheme, even though it is easily identifiable as part of the tree.
In Slowik’s first year in Houston, his offense was middle of the pack in both outside zone runs and play-action. They were also just below the league average in motion, a usual staple of the Shanahan offense. So far this year, things have come back into focus: Houston is 11th in outside runs, 13th in play-action, and eighth in motion.
Part of the reason for the slower timetable in implementing these characteristics of the offense could be that last season also saw a rookie quarterback running the show. C.J. Stroud was taken second overall in the draft and was immediately inserted into the starting lineup. Things started out rocky for Stroud: over the first eight weeks, Stroud completed just 60.3% of his passes and ranked 17th in success rate.
Then things started to click, and Stroud had a red hot finish. Over the final 10 weeks (in which he missed two games with an injury), Stroud completed 67.2% of his passes and ranked eighth in success rate. The Texans also caught fire, going 6-2 over that stretch with Stroud and winning their division. Stroud was named Offensive Rookie of the Year for his performance too.
That led to sky high expectations for this season, which were further heightened when Houston traded for Stefon Diggs in the offseason. But the Texans have struggled to live up to the hype thus far. They’re currently 20th in EPA/play and 23rd in offensive DVOA. Stroud has taken a step back too; he’s 26th in success rate and has already thrown more interceptions than he did all of last year.
Of course, it’s not all on Stroud. Nico Collins, who blossomed into the Texans’ top receiver last year, has missed the last five games with an injury, though he’s expected to return against the Cowboys this week. Then, two weeks ago, Diggs suffered a season-ending injury that further decimated this offense.
Now they face the Cowboys on Monday night. The Dallas defense hasn’t had a great season thus far, and they’ve been especially susceptible against Shanahan style offenses all year. That said, they also just got Micah Parsons back, and the Cowboys are fifth in the league in pressure rate. Meanwhile, only two offenses are giving up a higher pressure rate than Houston. Stroud has been one of the best quarterbacks under pressure, but it’s fair to wonder how long he can keep that up, especially against a player like Parsons.
All of this to say that the Cowboys might present a legitimate challenge defensively on Monday night. The Texans have been in a slump offensively and the injuries aren’t helping matters much, while the Cowboys just got their best player back. Will it be enough to pull off an upset, though? Only time will tell.
