The latest Dallas Cowboys headlines heading into the weekend.
Science Lab: Cowboys face daunting playoff odds – Patrik Walker, DallasCowboys.com
It is no surprise that at 3-6, the Cowboys’ playoff chances are pretty grim.
As noted, the Cowboys are 3-6 on the season and with eight games remaining, it’s not simply about getting back to winning games. Oh no no no, dear friend. This is now about trying to win each and every one of the contests from now through the Week 18 regular season finale which, as fate would have it, is at AT&T Stadium, where they aren’t faring well.
That said, do they need to win all of the final eight?
Mathematically, no, but there is a very clear and definitive Mendoza Line here.
Chance of Making Playoffs, Per Win Tally
Current status (3-6 record): 3% chance
Win 5 of the final 8 games (8-9 record): <1% chance
Win 6 of the final 8 (9-8 record): 11% chance
—————— Mendoza Line ——————
Win 7 of the final 8 (10-7 record): 66% chance
Win 8 of the final 8 (11-6 record): 99% chance
If the Cowboys lose to the Texans in Week 11, yes, their odds of making the playoffs drop from three percent (3%) to one percent (1%) but, if they somehow shock the world in primetime, their odds will obviously improve.
Hell, they’d double, but that just means they’ll go to a resounding six percent (6%).
Yay?
Mike McCarthy says Rico Dowdle is Cowboys’ lead back, ending RB by committee experiment – Shawn McFarland, Dallas Morning News
The running back by committee experiment is over. Rico Dowdle is the clear RB1.
“He’s the lead back,” McCarthy said. “I thought he had a really good first half [against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday], and I think that’s really illustrated by the attempts. Rico needs to touch the ball.”
Congratulations on the promotion, Rico, even if there’s no surprise.“If you’ve paid attention to the games the last couple of weeks,” Dowdle said, “we’ve been kind of trending in that direction.”
Dowdle has led the Cowboys in carries in six of the eight games he’s played this season, though the gap has widened of late. His 24 combined carries in the Cowboys’ last two games against the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles are four times as many as the next-closest ball carrier. Ezekiel Elliott — who didn’t play in Dallas’ loss to the Falcons due to a team discipline issue — still has the second-most carries in that stretch with six. He rushed for 75 yards on 12 carries against the Falcons two weeks ago and rushed for 53 yards on 12 carries vs. the Eagles on Sunday. The latter performance generated a season-best 73.8 offensive grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
The 26-year-old averaged 5.3 yards per carry and totaled 128 yards in his 24 combined carries against the Falcons and Eagles. No Cowboys lead back has had a more efficient singular week since Tony Pollard (6.1 yards per carry) vs. the Washington Commanders on Nov. 11, 2023.
“You have to get him the ball,” McCarthy said. “That’s my focus to continue to get him opportunities.”
How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career – Todd Archer, ESPN
This Cowboys’ offense is one of the worst in Mike McCarthy’s coaching career.
The Cowboys are averaging 19.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play, have converted 35.9% of their third-down opportunities and have scored touchdowns on 41.7% of their red zone trips. A quarterback guru, McCarthy’s QBs this season — Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush and Trey Lance — have a combined 43.3 Total QBR.
Those are all the worst marks through nine games for a McCarthy-led offense during his head-coaching career…
…Has the lack of offensive success made McCarthy question his system?
“I believe in the process,” McCarthy said. “I know a lot’s made of scheme and so forth. Your system of football has to fit your players. You’ve got to give these guys the opportunity. And every team’s built a little differently — what year you’re in, where your players are. This is not a ‘we need to go change’ [situation]. We need to be better at the things we’re committed to.”
Through nine games last season, the Cowboys were averaging 29.9 points per game, partially aided by defensive scores and special teams touchdowns (second most in the NFL). They averaged 379.1 yards per game (fourth best). They converted 47.2% of their third-down tries and scored touchdowns on 20 of 39 red zone trips.
Troy Aikman reveals what he anticipates from Cowboys’ Dak Prescott after hamstring surgery – SportsDay Staff, Dallas Morning News
Troy Aikman talked to the media about potential the long-term impact Dak Prescott’s injury may leave.
“We talked about it last week that I had a hamstring injury like so many people have in their careers. Missed two games and came back from that and it never really was an issue the rest of my career. But nothing as severe as what he’s had where the hamstring pulls from the bone and you have to have surgery,” Aikman said. “How much has the ankle, I guess, after that surgery, which was obviously a major injury, how much has that affected him in the years that have followed with his ability to scramble and run? It doesn’t look like it when he’s done it, but we all know that he hasn’t run as much.
“I doubt that that’s had as much to do with it as, like we talked about, as him just becoming a more experienced quarterback. I would think this would affect him in some degree. Again, it’s just me guessing. I have no idea. It sounds like it’s pretty severe.”
With Prescott out, the Cowboys will continue to turn to the backup quarterbacks in their ranks. Although both Cooper Rush and Trey Lance got playing time in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia, Mike McCarthy said Rush would be the starter against Houston.
CeeDee Lamb’s message to the Cowboys’ offense, Dak Prescott – Patrik Walker, DallasCowboys.com
CeeDee Lamb discussed the importance of getting in sync with his new QB for the remainder of the season.
The offense’s first outing without Prescott yielded only two field goals from Brandon Aubrey, along with four lost fumbles and an interception with a total of 66 passing yards. Lamb finished with just 21 receiving yards on six catches, though he was targeted 10 times, as the connection with Rush failed to ever get going.
He’s looking to rectify that against the Texans.
“The work is going to get done,” said the All-Pro receiver. “And, with me, I take full responsibility in getting in sync with him. We’re going to ride this thing out through the rest of the season, so I have the most confidence in him. I don’t care what happened last week, and last week is last week.
“So with that being said, we’ve got a game to win.”…
…“Obviously, being a receiver here, it’s very tough [to lose Prescott],” he said. “But going out here and knowing that I’ve still got to showcase my ability, prove myself to my guys and uplift everyone that’s in the locker room, and continue to fight within each and every individual that’s out there. [It’s about] having that effort.”
