The Dallas Cowboys are down, and fading fast. Sitting with a 3-6 record, they haven’t quite reached a projected top-10 draft selection, but they are much closer to the No. 1 overall selection than they are to making the playoffs. The man at the center of it all is head coach Mike McCarthy, who appears to be on his last legs as a playcaller.

McCarthy took over the duties from Kellen Moore, who himself is on his second OC job since leaving Dallas, but has the Eagles at 7-2 and in first place with a rejuvenated rushing attack centered around Saquon Barkley. Meanwhile the Cowboys’ offense has fallen flat this season. And now with Dak Prescott out for the year, it doesn’t appear to have any semblance of picking up.

That will likely mean the end of McCarthy’s tenure in Dallas, but one outlet doesn’t think he’s in danger of facing the same fate as Robert Saleh (NY Jets) or Dennis Allen (Saints). Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report ranks McCarthy’s chances of being let go in season as a lowly 2 out of 10.

The 3-6 Cowboys are falling apart. The defense stinks, players are publicly criticizing their head coach, and quarterback Dak Prescott appears headed for season-ending hamstring surgery. A significant rebuild is incoming, and McCarthy won’t be a part of it.

However, the Cowboys may not fire their head coach because they don’t have to. McCarthy is in the final year of his contract, which Dallas can simply choose not to renew. Franchise owner Jerry Jones probably won’t pull the plug on McCarthy before the offseason.

The only time Jones has fired a coach in-season came in 2010, when he replaced Wade Phillips with Jason Garrett. He’s stated publicly that he won’t repeat that decision in 2024.

Realistically, Jones will only deviate from his plan if a coach who isn’t currently employed by another team decides he wants to get an early start on the 2025 season—and, yes, we’re thinking of Bill Belichick, probably as much as Jones is.

Hot Seat Level: 2, until McCarthy’s contract expires, then he’s gone