Home woes
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Ironically, the Cowboys will be playing a team that’s been bad at home this season, just like them. The Falcons are just 2-3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, as opposed to being 3-0 on the road.
It was a rough start to the home slate for the Falcons, losing their first two games and scoring a measly 13.5 points a game in defeat. They managed to turn things around to win the next two but got stymied again in their last game in Atlanta, scoring just 14 points in a losing effort. At home this season, the Falcons are scoring 20.6 ppg, a number that jumps to just over 30 points on the road.
The Falcons also give up more points a game at home than they do on the road, giving the Cowboys a chance at the upset. McCarthy’s team has played better on the road as well, especially defensively, where they’re giving up over 20 points less a game than when they’re at AT&T Stadium.
The Falcons have a losing record at home, while the Cowboys are 3-1 on the road, the hope is that trend continues.
No pass rush
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The Falcons have the worst pass rush in the NFL. That’s not hyperbole, their defense has just six sacks on the season, which is three fewer than the next worse team, it’s that bad. It didn’t start out that way, but with just one sack in the last four games, the Falcons’ defense is struggling to get to the quarterback.
Their pass rush was one of their weaknesses heading into the season, which is why the Falcons traded for veteran edge rusher Matthew Judon. However, Judon hasn’t produced enough, and the team has used versatile defensive lineman Grady Jarrett more at defensive end to add some punch to the pass rush. Combined the duo has just three sacks on the season and their 1.5 apiece leads the defense. No other Falcon defender has more than one sack.
The Cowboys’ offensive line has been an issue this season, but they’ve also gone up against some of the best pass rushers in the league. That won’t be the case against the Falcons, and if the unit can keep QB Dak Prescott clean, they’ll have an opportunity to put up points.
Prescott and the offense will love not having to face an elite pass rush in Week 9.
Kirk Cousins and turnovers
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Along the same lines as playing at home, veteran QB Kirk Cousins has played better on the road than he has in front of the home crowd. Cousins does have a propensity for giving the ball away and he’s tied for the third most interceptions on the season. All seven of Cousins’ picks in 2024 have been thrown at home, including two each in losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks, respectively.
It doesn’t all fall on Cousins, but nine of the 10 Falcons turnovers this season have come at home, and eight occurred in their three losses. When Atlanta protects the ball, they win games, when they’re reckless with it, they lose.
The Cowboys haven’t done a great job at creating turnovers this season, forcing just five through seven games. That could all change by putting a little pressure on Cousins.
One of the biggest factors on who wins and losses in the NFL often comes down to turnovers, and the Falcons have a problem not giving it away at home. The Cowboys have to love their chances to force some turnovers, it’s their best path to claim a win in Week 9.
