Here are our predictions for tonight’s Cowboys game.
The bye week felt like an eternity for the Cowboys, thanks in no small part to the dour way they wrapped things up against the Lions the last time they took the field. Now, after taking some time to rest and tweak their approach, the Cowboys head to San Francisco to take on their bitter rivals. Can they beat a 49ers team that is also struggling at 3-4? Our writers have some thoughts.
When San Francisco has the ball
Eye discipline, eye discipline, eye discipline
The 49ers offense, led by Kyle Shanahan, is predicated on confusing defenses. The run game and pass game are perfectly married with each other, and Shanahan layers in plenty of motion on top to wreak havoc on the minds of opposing defenders. Only two teams run motion more often than the 49ers right now.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have struggled mightily against motion. When opposing offenses use motion, Dallas is giving up seven yards per play and allowing 0.22 EPA/play, both of which are worst in the league by a wide margin. In order to stand a chance against this offense, even with so many injured skill players, Dallas needs to play with perfect eye discipline and avoid getting eaten up by all the motion and misdirection.
When Dallas has the ball
Attack the edges
The 49ers have taken a noticeable step back on defense this year, and their run defense has been the biggest issue. They’ve been particularly vulnerable against runs outside the tackles, where San Francisco is giving up the second-most yards per rush in the league. They also have the second-worst run stuff rate on outside runs, only ahead of – you guessed it – the Dallas Cowboys.
For whatever reason, though, teams aren’t running the ball outside against San Francisco. The Cowboys already don’t run outside the tackles much either, even though Rico Dowdle is second among all running backs in success rate on runs outside the tackles. However, it seems likely that Dalvin Cook will be making his Cowboys debut in this game, and Cook has historically been a better outside runner in his career. All the signs suggest Dallas should deviate from their usual game plan and attack the edges, but will they?
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (3-3):
I wish I could pick the Cowboys, but there are disturbing signs the wheels are coming off. Jerry Jones keeps making very unhelpful remarks and I don’t have a good feeling about the morale in the locker room. Most importantly, I just don’t see the performance on the field.
I think Mike McCarthy and company get outcoached and Dallas loses 24-16.
Matt Holleran (2-4):
If there ever was a time for the Cowboys to finally slay the dragon that is the San Francisco 49ers, it would be this Sunday. San Fran comes into this game with a 3-4 record and have injuries throughout their ranks. The 49ers are as vulnerable as they’ll ever be, and this would be the perfect time for the Cowboys to finally get the monkey off their back and beat the team that has given them so much trouble over the years.
Unfortunately, I don’t see how anyone could have confidence that will happen. Even with all their injuries, the 49ers just have the Cowboys number. Somehow Fred Warner and the San Francisco defense will record multiple impressive takeaways and Brock Purdy will find wide open receivers like he did last fall. The 49ers are Dallas’ kryptonite, and that isn’t going to change on Sunday.
Give me the 49ers, 27-17.
Jess Haynie (4-2):
The Cowboys technically have a better record than the 49ers, but the Niners have had more impressive wins and more respectable losses. They are the better team by most measures not to mention the way they’ve dominated Dallas over the last few years. Both are struggling with injuries, but the Cowboys’ weakness in run defense will allow San Francisco to mitigate some of their own.
49ers 27, Cowboys 20.
Brandon Loree (3-3)
The Cowboys are historically good coming off the bye week under Mike McCarthy’s 10 years head coach. In games after their bye week in which they’ve been on the road, McCarthy‘s record is two and one in Dallas. However, they have a mountain-sized hill to climb to beat the 49ers for the first time since 2020. Dalvin Cook’s presence may be enough to jumpstart the game, but it won’t be enough to carry Dallas to a win.
San Francisco edges this one out 25-17.
Mike Poland (3-3):
The Cowboys have allowed three passing touchdowns on the road this season, that’s the fourth-fewest in league this year. As for the 49ers offense, they’ve scored two passing touchdowns at home this season, second-fewest. Add to the fact the team could be limited with injuries, that makes for a big difference in their attack.
Cowboys win 24-20 this week. Let’s get the season back on track.
Dana Bartholomew (4-2):
Both of these teams are extremely banged up so it’s a bit difficult to gauge this game on historical performances between the two. I was hoping that the Cowboys would get an advantage in healing a lot of the injuries during bye week but as it looks right now, that wasn’t the case. Parsons and Bland are both ruled out. Carson and Kendricks are both still questionable. With still so many key players out on defense, I’m going to have to give the advantage to the 49ers in San Francisco.
49ers win, 30-20.
Brian Martin (3-3):
With both teams currently dealing with the a multitude of injuries to key starters, this Week 8 matchup between the Cowboys and 49ers is an odd one to predict. Dallas is coming off their bye week, which could give them a slight advantage with the extra time to prepare. On the other hand, San Francisco has easily gotten the better of the Cowboys in their last several meetings.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’m going to go with the hometown team and predict SF wins 17-13 in a close one.
RJ Ochoa (5-1):
Even if the Cowboys had not looked like an overall disaster to this point in the season, there is simply nothing to have happened in recent history that would suggest taking them against this team specifically is a good idea. Until the Cowboys prove that they can beat the 49ers in any sort of way I will take San Francisco against them without any kind of hesitation. Factoring in all of this season’s funk and the off-the-field chaos, it becomes all the more easy.
Give me the Niners along the lines of 33-23.
David Howman (3-3):
There are surprisingly quite a few factors that point to a Cowboys win on Sunday night. Mike McCarthy typically has his team ready to play coming out of the bye, the 49ers are the worst they’ve been in several years even before all the injuries they’re facing right now, and Dallas is seemingly only capable of winning on the road this year.
Having said that, I’m just not ready to believe yet. While it would be peak Cowboys to finally beat the 49ers but have it feel completely empty due to the circumstances, it would also be peak Cowboys to come in on extra rest against a depleted 49ers squad and still get thrashed by them. Unfortunately, I think that’s the more likely outcome.
49ers win, 38-20.
