The Cowboys face their toughest challenge to date in Week 6. The Lions comes to town from Detroit at 3-1, well rested and looking for revenge. Coming off the bye they haven’t played a game since the month of September. Because of that, expect the Lions to be ultra prepared for the 3-2 Cowboys, challenging them on both sides of the ball.
The Lions are a one of the most high-powered offenses in the league this season. Ben Johnson’s offense features many of the staples that have traditionally given Dallas fits. If the Cowboys can’t overcome their many injuries and play defense with tenacity and discipline, the game has the potential to get out of hand.
The Cowboys will be hard pressed to stop Detroit’s two-headed monster at running back. With 0.093 EPA per play and a 50.8% success rate, Detroit ranks third in the NFL in rushing. Much of that success falls on design and running back play. It’s unlikely the Cowboys can stop their run-heavy approach, but they will need to at least control it to have a chance on Sunday.
For the Cowboys to win they need to turn this into a shootout. The Lions are mortal on defense so Dallas has to take advantage of opportunities and get points on the board early and often. On defense the Cowboys have to play smart. They will be challenged by Johnson’s play design and will have to execute between the ears before anything.
Which brings things to the first key matchup of Week 6.
Cowboys LBs vs motion and play action
. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Detroit offense is something to aspire for to Cowboys fans. It’s an attack that leans on a highly productive running game, schemes that open big plays downfield and uses all the modern cheat codes of today’s NFL offenses.
Johnson, the Lions offensive coordinator, is one of the hottest names on the future head coach market right now and the Cowboys front office may very well be experiencing a live first-hand interview for their next head coach.
The biggest challenge for the Dallas defense will be handling the action up front with their front-seven; particularly at linebacker. Obviously, the defensive line play must be adequate to give the second level a chance, but the onus really falls on the LBs to make all the right moves.
Motion, play-action and run-pass option plays put Cowboys linebackers in tremendous conflict. If they bite on one thing, they get hit with the other. Motion at the snap forces defenders to switch in real time. It can change coverage assignments in the passing game and gap assignments in the running game. Defenders have to do this in an instant since it’s often at the snap. They don’t have time to communicate it therefore the entire defense must diagnose and execute individually. It’s a task that’s increasingly difficult if Eric Kendricks, the Cowboys veteran base defense LB, misses the game.
Cowboys outside WRs vs Lions boundary CBs
(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
It has to be a shootout and the best way to achieve that is by attacking the Lions on the boundary. CeeDee Lamb had a monster game last meeting, putting up 13 receptions for 227 yards and a touchdown. He doesn’t need to have that again but he does need to be plenty productive. He’ll also need help, so the task largely falls on Jalen Tolbert to back up and build on his breakout game in Pittsburgh last week.
The Lions are built from the inside out in the secondary. While Amik Robertson and Brian Branch make things difficult inside, Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis provide opportunities outside. As long as Prescott can manage their ball-hawking safety Kerby Joseph, he should be able to win consistently against the Lions man coverage outside.
Aidan Hutchinson vs Guyton/Steele
Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
The Lions may not be aware of this but there’s some bad blood between the Cowboys and their top pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson. In their last meeting Hutchinson deployed a drop hip takedown of Prescott on two occasions. The dangerous tackling technique has since been outlawed but memories of the borderline dirty play remain fresh in the Cowboys’ minds.
Hutchinson is off to a blazing start in 2024 and currently grades as the NFL’s best edge player per Pro Football Focus. The Cowboys offensive tackle situation is less than ideal so expect plenty of help to be sent Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele’s way.
Unlike T.J. Watt who the Cowboys faced last week, Hutchinson switches sides to exploit matchups. Prescott will likely be rolling plays away from whatever side Hutchinson is on and in moments he can’t, the Lion’s pass rusher will likely be met with double teams, chips and some uncomfortable low blocks.
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Conclusion
. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
With so many key players out on the Dallas defense it’s going to be extremely difficult to stop this Detroit offense. Mazi Smith and Linval Joseph will need to be ultra stout inside and Osa Odighizuwa will have to again be up to the task of being the Cowboys’ top pass rusher.
The bad blood previously mentioned doesn’t just flow one way but both ways. The Cowboys have won the last six contests between the two teams. Prescott has never lost to the Detroit franchise and many of the Dallas victories have come by slim margins and controversial calls. They want to beat America’s Team in a very big way and this time the Cowboys are a significant underdog.
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Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
