For yet another week, offensive projections are rather low for the Dallas Cowboys.
We have almost reached the championship series in this year’s MLB playoffs and are still waiting for the Dallas Cowboys offensive to fully arrive. Let that sink in a bit.
To be clear the Cowboys are improving a bit. They are coming off of a game in which they had 445 total yards and while they only had 20 points to show for it, that was essentially due to some self-induced errors from the quarterback. Obviously this is not an ideal situation but the hope is that it can be cleaned up and that we may be starting to turn the proverbial corner.
Whether or not this happens on Sunday remains to be seen. The Cowboys are taking on a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 15th in Defensive DVOA at FTN Fantasy. Given that the Cowboys currently rank 20th on offense this is somewhat of a movable force meets a stoppable object type of contest.
Detroit is much better on the offensive side of the ball themselves which means if Dallas is going to stand any chance then their own offensive unit is going to have to show up. The time has come to take a look at what projections for the Cowboys offense this week look like, but before we do we have to look back and see how the NFL Pro model did at predicting last week.
Here is what NFL Pro thought the Cowboys would look like in Pittsburgh and how things ultimately unfolded.
- Projected Dak Prescott at Pittsburgh: 233.5 yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.6 INTs, 12.9 rush yards, 0.1 rush TDs
Actual: 352 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 rush yards - Projected Rico Dowdle at Pittsburgh: 33 yards, 0.2 TDs, 2 rec, 14.8 rec yards, 0.1 rec TDs
Actual: 87 yards, 2 rec, 27 rec yards, 1 rec TD - Projected CeeDee Lamb: 6.1 rec, 76.6 yards, 0.4 TDs
Actual: 5 rec, 62 yards - Projected Jalen Tolbert: 2.5 rec, 29.5 yards, 0.2 TDs
Actual: 7 rec, 87 yards, 1 TD - Projected Jake Ferguson: 3.7 rec, 38.2 yards, 0.3 TDs
Actual: 6 rec, 70 yards
The closest projection came relative to Rico Dowdle in the passing game. Interestingly if Rico is involved there this week in the sense that he scores a receiving touchdown, he will make franchise history.
Do NFL Pro’s projections think that he will get there? The answer is no. Here is what NFL Pro is predicting for both Cowboys and Lions skill position players.
These projections look very similar to what we saw last week from Dak Prescott. More than anything there is an uptick in the passing yards and marginally so in interceptions. They must be assuming that Dallas is going to have to throw the ball more and therefore put the ball in harm’s way more given that Detroit is likely to score a ton of points themselves.
Interestingly though the projections for the Detroit side of things are not too high. Jared Goff’s predicted line is close to Prescott’s, the largest differences come from running back Jahymr Gibbs relative to Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. As far as St. Brown is concerned, it is likely that he will line up in the slot a lot on Sunday and therefore will draw Jourdan Lewis. Beyond the fact that Lewis seemed to get in St. Brown’s head a bit last season, Lewis has been one of the best slot corners in the NFL through Week 5.
Also from NFL Pro:
Dallas Cowboys CB Jourdan Lewis has allowed 3.4 yards per target when the nearest defender in coverage this season. This is the second-fewest among 28 total slot corners with at least 10 targets faced.
Lewis has given up 11 receptions for 61 yards on the 18 targets he has faced which have resulted in -17.9 target EPA. This is the fewest of any slot corner.
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has been targeted on a career-high 30.9% of his routes when in the slot this season, but interestingly has so far averaged a career-low 5.9 yards per target. ARSB has 14 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown on these targets.
One could argue that this gives Dallas a bit of an edge or advantage in this specific matchup, but those are going to be hard to find between these two teams. The Lions are fielding one of the best rosters in the entire league and the Cowboys’ is good at full health, but they are obviously not in that position right now
As far as perceived advantages are concerned, it should come as no surprise that NFL Pro is significantly favoring the Lions in every regard.
Passing Game Advantages:
Running Game Advantages:
By any basic or advanced measurement, the Cowboys are struggling in the run game on both sides of the ball so they are going to be behind the eight ball in that sense until some data trends more positively to their cause. Meanwhile, the Lions are objectively an amazing running team independent of this game. This is now an unstoppable force meeting a highly movable object.
If the Cowboys are going to have a chance this week then they are going to have to do a little bit of shocking and awing which will mean out-performing what most, including this model, expect of them.
