The Cowboys have taken some positive steps over the last two weeks, but there is still a lot of work to do.
The Cowboys are officially on a winning streak for the first time this year, though it hasn’t been the most inspiring run. Their win over the Steelers counts the same as any other win, but it sure was ugly to watch.
The analytics reflect that, too. As we enter the second week with strength-of-schedule adjustments for all DVOA-related grades taking effect (though the model won’t be at full strength for a few more weeks), the Cowboys’ standing amongst the NFL landscape is starting to come into focus. And it looks about as good as the team did on Sunday night.
Here’s the good news: the Cowboys moved up in total team DVOA for the second week in a row. The bad news? They’re still just taking baby steps. As a team, Dallas is still in the bottom half of the league in efficiency.
Comparing that grade to their DAVE score, which combines actual results with DVOA-based preseason projections, the Cowboys are 12th in the league. Essentially that means that the Cowboys should be roughly six spots higher based on what everyone expected them to be and what they’ve shown so far. And if the last two weeks are anything to go off of, the Cowboys are making their way in that direction, albeit at a snail’s pace.
The EPA-based team tiers reflect much of the same sentiment for America’s Team. They officially crossed over into the bottom right quadrant, which means the offense is now above the league average in EPA/play. They’re now hovering right around the Falcons, Eagles, Colts, and Cardinals, who just beat the 49ers this past week.
Taking a broader look at the league as a whole, this chart reflects the lack of any truly great teams right now. The Chiefs and 49ers are overlapping almost perfectly right now in the category of “we know they’re capable of more.” The Bills and Saints are in the most ideal spots on this chart, though both lost by double digits last week, while the Vikings and Commanders are operating on opposite sides of the same “elite on one side of the ball, not so great on the other” coin. In short, the race for NFL supremacy is wide open.
Offense
In a lot of ways, the offense had a great game this week. They nearly doubled the Steelers’ offensive output, Dak Prescott threw for over 350 yards, and Rico Dowdle had a career night. However, they scored just once in four red zone trips and had just two touchdowns on nine drives.
The Cowboys were moving the ball well, but they also had a handful of extremely inefficient plays that killed their overall grades here. Prescott’s three turnovers, Brandon Aubrey’s blocked field goal, and Dowdle’s fumble (even though it was recovered) amounted to a total net loss of 18 expected points. For context, the Cowboys’ biggest play in terms of expected points added (EPA) was the game-winner to Jalen Tolbert, which constituted +4.6 EPA. Inefficiency in the red zone killed what was an otherwise positive outing for this offense.
Speaking of inefficiency in the red zone, it was almost entirely because of Dak Prescott. His fumble was the result of holding the ball too long, and the two interceptions were just poorly thrown balls, even if the receiver might share some of the blame.
The crazy thing is that Prescott had a phenomenal night outside of those three plays. If you discount turnovers for all quarterbacks, Prescott would’ve ranked second in the NFL in EPA/play in Week 5 despite playing against a Steelers defense that was fifth in EPA/play in the first four weeks. Of course, the turnovers do count, but even so Prescott was sixth in EPA/play this week. Given that Prescott is usually more careful with the ball, this would seem to bode well for the quarterback moving forward.
All things considered, this was a really encouraging game from the offensive line. Dak Prescott was pressured on just 31.1% of his 45 dropbacks, the second-lowest pressure rate the Steelers have had in a game this year. Considering that this came in a game where Tyler Guyton left early with an injury, moving Tyler Smith out to left tackle and T.J. Bass slotting in at guard, that’s pretty good.
It was far from perfect – Zack Martin was the only lineman in this game to not allow multiple pressures – but it was enough to get the job done. The Cowboys also had their best game of the season in run blocking, and Rico Dowdle certainly took advantage. They’re now in the top 10 in pressure rate, adjusted sack rate, and adjusted line yards. That bodes well for a line with two rookie starters.
Defense
This game serves as a great illustration of the value of advanced statistics vs box score statistics. The Cowboys offense racked up yards, but they weren’t very efficient. Meanwhile, the run-heavy Steelers offense averaged just 3.5 yards per carry (only six teams were worse in Week 5), but those runs were still very efficient, posting the fourth-best EPA/rush in Week 5.
As a result, the Cowboys run defense took another hit in the efficiency grades, even though they didn’t give up a ton of yards. The pass rush, though, posted a surprisingly efficient night despite being without its two best players. They’re now ninth in pressure rate after a game that saw five different defenders register 2+ pressures.
The Steelers don’t have much in the way of true offensive firepower, but the secondary still yielded a 55.6% completion rate from Justin Fields, who was completing 70.6% of his passes coming into this one. Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis took turns covering the Steelers’ top receiver, George Pickens, and they limited the big downfield threat to just two catches for five yards on five targets.
It might be time to talk about DeMarvion Overshown as a liability in coverage though. Overshown, who drew an inexplicable comparison to T.J. Watt in this game, has earned plenty of praise for his speed and productivity against the run. However, opposing quarterbacks have looked his way quite often. Not only does he lead the whole team in targets, but he’s also allowed 20 receptions already. Only 18 players in the league – at any position, not just linebacker – have given up more receptions. And among defenders with at least 10 targets, only five are allowing a higher completion rate than Overshown. It’s still very early for the linebacker, but if there’s an area he needs to get better at, it’s definitely against the pass.
