Cowboys Point/Counterpoint: Setting realistic expectations for the 2024 season

What are your expectations for Sunday?

At long last, it’s finally here: the 2024 NFL season has arrived, and with it, another year of Dallas Cowboys football. It’s that magical time of year where Cowboys fans convince themselves that this will be the year, that things won’t end in heartbreak like they have the last 20 some years.

How this season goes for the Cowboys still remains a mystery, but one thing is for sure: this season does feel different already. Fan confidence is way down after an offseason that saw very few moves to upgrade the team and, as of publication, Dak Prescott is primed to play the season out on the final year of his contract.

So we might not be entering this new season with the same ol’ attitude, preemptively planning the Super Bowl parade routes, but it seems as if sentiment has swung to the opposite extreme. This begs the question: what are some realistic expectations for this year’s Cowboys team as they gear up to face the Browns? Our own Tom Ryle and David Howman weigh in.

Tom: Well, I’m going to be one of the Grinches today. I’m rather pessimistic, for two reasons. One is internal, and I’ll get to that later, but the first one to discuss is about the league overall. Every year, about half of the teams that made the playoffs the previous season come up short. Based on that, at least three of last year’s NFC playoff teams are not going to make it, and I have a strong feeling that it is the Cowboys’ turn in the barrel this year. They have made the postseason three years in a row. Not many seem to think they are one of the elite teams that should cruise into January with a playoff berth. I’m one of the doubters, and looking at the schedule, I’m not confident they can get over .500. We still don’t know what any team really is at this point, of course, but there are other signs that 2024 is going to be a struggle for Dallas.

David: You’re a mean one, Mr. Grinch. Who hurt you? Obviously, this offseason hasn’t been one to write home about for the Cowboys, but it certainly hasn’t been the disaster some seem to think it is. The team once again appears to have aced the draft – they have four rookies listed as starters on the depth chart, which would be a franchise first in the common era – and they made some savvy additions in Eric Kendricks, Linval Joseph, Jordan Phillips, and even Dalvin Cook, who offers some value as a practice squad player.

All of that is added to a team that returns the vast majority of their players from last year’s team, which was pretty darn good in their own right and cruised to the playoffs. I’m a little skeptical that the Cowboys can be the first team in nearly two decades to win the NFC East in consecutive seasons, but that’s mostly because I’m superstitious about these things. But this remains a two team race between the Cowboys and Eagles – the Commanders are in Year 1 of a totally new regime, and the Giants appear to be heading for a regime change too – and both of those teams have cruised to the postseason each of the last three years. I’m not sure why this year should be any different.

Tom: Well, let’s start with that tidbit of rookies starting. It is highly improbable that they are all going to come out of the gate looking ready to go, and with them being at left tackle, center, and corner, and linebacker, that could make for a very long game. The big matchup is Tyler Guyton against Myles Garrett, and Dak Prescott better have eyes in the back of his head while there better be a tight end out there to help on most plays. They also look to be leaning a lot on Marshawn Kneeland and Marist Liafu, and don’t forget that DeMarvion Overshown is going to see his first NFL action after missing last season with an injury.

It also doesn’t help that CeeDee Lamb just got his extension done and missed all of camp. They need him and Prescott to click right away. Meanwhile, we have a running back by committee situation, with Ezekiel Elliott listed as the starter. Shades of 2016!

For the team to do well, almost everything has to go just right. And that is not something to pin our hopes on.

David: Is that not how every NFL team feels right now, save for maybe the Chiefs? Everything has to go just right for any team to win, and luck absolutely plays a factor in winning, not just on a week-to-week basis but the whole enchilada. I’m not sure that’s a reason to discount the Cowboys, especially when they’ve got one of the more talented rosters in the league.

In a roundabout way, you actually brought up one thing that gives me plenty of hope heading into Week 1: Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Sure, Lamb hasn’t been with the team until very recently, but we’ve heard all camp how he’s been working out and staying in contact with his quarterback, and those two have been on the same page for a minute now. I have zero concern about that connection not being in sync right from the jump. In the meantime, Lamb’s absence allowed Prescott to further deepen his connections with other receivers like Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and Jalen Brooks, all of whom turned heads at various points in camp.

As for the left tackle situation, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about Guyton facing Myles Garrett in Week 1. But the rookie has also been facing Micah Parsons (who is better than Garrett, for the record) every day in practice. Not to mention that Prescott has been highly adept at avoiding pressure from the outside throughout his career, making it easier to mitigate a rookie mistake or two from Guyton. That’s in stark contrast to the other quarterback in this game, who – had he played more than six games last year – would have ranked sixth among all quarterbacks last year in rate of pressures “created” by the quarterback.

Tom: Well, here’s the thing. That is the kind of argument we have been making for years now, and we always wind up with big sadz come January. More than ever, I am not going to believe anything until it is demonstrated and repeated. Between the passive approach to roster building and the inescapability of the Jones family running the franchise, I think this team is heading for a fall this year. They have set Mike McCarthy up to fail and they make every contract negotiation seem like a fight. I would much rather you be right, but even if they make the playoffs, which I obviously doubt, I have zero expectation of anything other than an early disappointing exit. This is just the identity of this team under Jerry.

David: This almost feels like a repeat of last year’s debate entering the season, but with a little more negativity. I distinctly remember a lot of people last year saying Mike McCarthy was set up to fail, and yet he delivered a division title and a third straight 12-win season. January was still miserable, yes, but that month is awful for 30 teams and, as I often say, only one team gets to end their season with a win.

Obviously I have high expectations for the Cowboys, and losing in January will never feel good. But you can’t win a Super Bowl without first making the playoffs, and McCarthy has proven to be adept at making the playoffs no matter how many times the front office sets him up to fail.

As for this first game, I personally expect the Browns to win, but that doesn’t worry me. The Browns have an elite pass rush and strong run game, two areas of weakness (question marks at best) for the Cowboys. But McCarthy is only 1-3 in Week 1 in Dallas, so I’m not going to be firing up mock draft machines if I’m right about losing this week. Just like you won’t be putting in a request for PTO on February 10 any time soon.

As you said earlier, we don’t know what any team is just yet, but I am overflowing with excitement to find out.